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Diversify: Excellent Strategy, Bad Tactic
gold barsBy Bill Green, Numismatic News
October 23, 2008
gold bars

The headline of Debbie Bradley's front page article in the Oct. 14 issue of Numismatic News perfectly captured an essential strategy of smart investing: "Take Steps To Diversify.". However, we only had to reach the second paragraph to get one of the worst tactical recommendations I've ever come across.

Mike Fuijenz, president of Universal Coin and Bullion, says "take 20 percent of your money out of the market and put it into gold." Mr. Fuijenz goes on to caution us not to go overboard by putting "50 or 100 percent of your money anywhere unless you're a speculator." Well, a concentration of 20 percent in any one investment certainly qualifies as speculating and flies in the face of sound diversification.

I can see where Fuijenz is coming from. After all, he's in the business of buying and selling gold. What a nice favor you'd be doing him and other sales folks like him if you followed his recommendation. Good for his business but let's face it. He's not serving up impartial investment advice.

But let's move beyond Fuijenz' self-serving tactic and explore a number of reasons why making a big bet on gold (and, yes, 20 percent is a very big bet) is a really dumb move.

1) It's too late. The time to buy gold is behind us. About two years ago would have been perfect timing. Today, gold is about 21 percent off its recent peak and down 10 percent since this Numismatic News article was written. Of course, no one knows what gold prices will do in the future.

However, just look at the price of a barrel of oil. It's a broadly used commodity whose price has collapsed 50 percent in just a few short months. That's a real possibility for gold as well. Remember what billionaire investor Warren Buffet tells us. Sell when people are euphoric and buy when there is fear and panic. Euphoric gold cheer leaders like Fuijenz and those who take his advice stand a very good chance of finding themselves trying to "catch a falling safe."

2) Get out of the market now and you'll lock in your losses. The name of the game is not to buy high and sell low but that's exactly what you'll be doing if you take any money out of equities right now. You wouldn't sell your house just because it dropped dramatically in value. So, why would you sell stocks just because they have plummeted.

Also, if you study the history of stock market crashes you'll find that every time stock prices rebounded with a vengeance and sometimes as quickly as six months. Put aside your fear and don't buy into the "this time it's different" doom and gloom prognostications. If it really is different this time (and it isn't) it won't make any difference where you invest.

3) Gold has been a terrible long-term investment. It took gold about 27 years to again reach the peak it achieved in 1980. Had you invested in gold during this period you would have walked away from spectacular stock market investment returns. Just putting your cash into a money market fund would at least have earned you some interest. Also, when selling gold bullion (and sometimes gold coins) you incur additional assay expenses. Oh, and did I mention storage and security costs?

4) A 20 percent position in any single investment is way too much concentration. You should always limit your exposure. This is the fundamental thinking behind diversification. Unlike Fuijenz' 20 percent recommendation the most you should ever have in a single, concentrated investment is 5 percent. Low cost, no load mutual funds are a perfect way to achieve diversification, and you can even find funds that include gold and gold mining stocks in their portfolio. Now that's a lot easier than dealing with the physical product. The biggest decisions center on which mutual funds to own and the appropriate split of your total investment dollars between equities and bonds.

As a coin hobbyist I care most about the individual pieces in my collection and the pleasure I derive from each. Any price appreciation I receive is just icing on the cake. Please don't confuse your hobby interests with your investment well being. That's a losers game.



Bill Green is a hobbyist from Alamo, Calif.

Viewpoint is a forum for the expression of opinion on a variety of numismatic subjects. The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of Numismatic News. To have your opinion considered for Viewpoint, write to David C. Harper, Editor, Numismatic News, 700 E. State St., Iola, WI 54990. Send e-mail to david.harper@fwpubs.com.






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Comments
On October 24, 2008 thowze said
The author states that the price of gold has fallen 21% from its recent peak. What the author has failed to state is that these are COMEX futures prices which are moving in complete opposite of physical gold prices. Not only is  physical gold bullion commanding higher increasing prices, but many dealers are reporting lead times of 12 to 16 weeks. Some have stopped taking orders for physical gold altogether due to the overall onslaught of orders.

As for 20% being a big bet, the markets are tanking far greater than 20%. And figuring in returns for gold verses the S&P over the past 5 years has gold as a big winner, (95.59% gain vs -7.31% loss as of October 22, 2008).
On October 24, 2008 Rick Parker said
The author is way off on this one.  While I don't condone a 20% investment (personal financial standings vary), over the next five years gold will appreciate substantially reaching levels of $1.5K+/oz.  The federal government and foreign governments cannot support the dollar over the long term given the debt and leverage practices the United States Government is involved in now.  Until the government changes its spending, earmark and tax policies the economy will continue to suffer.  The current tax policies need to be replaced by the FairTax.  This is the only way to attract lost and new business and jobs back to this country.  Until the people take away the power of the politicians and decide how they are going to be taxed the problems will continue.  Over $70 trillion of untaxed revenue leaving the country every year would create a heck of a surplus under the FairTax!  

Foreign investment is being withdrawn from the U.S. economy and unemployment is on the rise.  Depending on who the next president is we could be looking at catastrophic financial conditions in the U.S.

The catalist for further decline in the dollar is in place.  Where we go from here is up to us.
On October 24, 2008 Madness!! said
I only see one reason why a person should load up on gold. Or silver. That's if ya believe that the fiat currencies of the world are going to become worthless. Being a prospector myself, I see gold as a hedge against failure of the currency. I don't care if it goes up or down. I dig mine up out of the ground. If ya place 20% of your holdings in gold, it'll cheer ya or pain ya when it has big moves, just like stocks. The big thing to remember is to do your research and make informed decisions. If ya move with your emotions, you get slaughtered with the rest of the pigs that Cramer talks about.
On October 25, 2008 rick g said
I really have to disagree with this one. Sorry.

But, I am not an investor in gold or silver. A person should keep it handy for protection against a government that spends $0.08 printing a $100 note and then runs the presses 24/7. Heck, don't worry about losing some of your paper money, worry about losing everything you've got. The viability of a the fiat money system is based on high interest rates and disciplined printing (Output of the economy must be in line with the output of the money supply). We are certainly doing the exact opposite of that.
On October 27, 2008 ACT said
The writer of this piece sounds way too much like a stock broker.  Sure, the stock market will come back, and that's when investors will start shifting more of their assets back to equities.  And here's another point about gold: As coin collectors, many of us are invested in rare gold coins.  These are valuable BOTH as gold and as rarities--they have two ways to be valuable.  The gold market has experienced wild swings, but the rare coins market is booming.  
On October 29, 2008 kimo said
Right or wrong, I am making money with gold ans silver that I had hoarded from two years ago. My stock holdings are all down an average of 40%, while my precious metals are netting as much as 50 to 100 percent, and that is on ebay sales.

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